The ocean stores 20 times more carbon than the atmosphere and terrestrial plants combined and absorbs a third of human-generated carbon dioxide and 93% of anthropogenic heat. Photo credit: ADB
Indonesia can significantly scale up its climate ambition by bolstering blue carbon ecosystems, advancing offshore renewable energy, and ensuring domestic shipping embraces electrification and low-carbon fuels.
Australia-based think tank Climateworks Centre found that ocean-based climate actions could be a central component of Indonesia’s progress toward achieving net zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. The ocean stores 20 times more carbon than the atmosphere and terrestrial plants combined, and it absorbs a third of human-generated carbon dioxide and 93% of anthropogenic heat.
According to the Sea of Opportunity: Ocean-Based Mitigation to Support Indonesia's Climate Ambition summary report, adding ocean-based mitigation to Indonesia’s second nationally determined contribution (NDC), which is due in 2025, could bridge the gap between the country’s transition scenario and the low carbon scenario compatible with the Paris Agreement target (limit global warming to 1.5°C). The report’s analysis showed the gap could be closed by 19% in 2030 and by 49% in 2050.
The report is noteworthy for Indonesian provinces under the BIMP-EAGA cooperation agreement—Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua—which have ocean resources that offer untapped opportunities that can help the country meet and raise its climate ambition.
Potential contribution
The report found that ocean-based mitigation could deliver the following impacts:
- The inclusion of seagrass into Indonesia’s NDC monitoring and reporting frameworks and the establishment of protection targets will reduce their degradation and destruction. This has the potential to mitigate 17 to 60 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year by 2030. This adds to the 32 to 41 MtCO2e of emissions mitigation per year projected for mangroves by 2030. In terms of seaweed farming, Indonesia has the potential to mitigate 0.15 to 0.22 MtCO2e per year if it is able to achieve 30% of the projected 1.5 million hectares of seaweed cultivation potential by 2030.
- Deployment of a mix of four offshore energy technologies—wave, tidal, offshore wind, and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)—could mitigate 0.83 MtCO2e per year by 2030 with rapid acceleration to 2050.
- The decarbonization of the domestic maritime transport and shipping sector could mitigate 2.1–2.8 MtCO2e per year by 2030.
Blue carbon ecosystems. Indonesia’s blue carbon, or the carbon captured by ocean and coastal ecosystems, is globally significant. The country has 17% of the world’s mangrove and seagrass forests, the report said, citing a 2015 study.
Mitigation actions identified in the report include actively addressing deforestation and degradation of mangroves, ensuring mangroves forests are not converted to other land uses, improving seagrass protection, and expanding seaweed farming. The report also recommended setting emissions mitigation targets and protection and restoration strategies for mangroves and seagrass to secure these ecosystems through 2030.
Apart from the environmental gains, protecting blue ecosystems can also help reduce inequalities among vulnerable groups. For instance, sustainable seaweed farming can help households improve their livelihood and empower women. “By aligning on-the-ground actions with the NDCs, Indonesia can foster sustainable development, ensure the well-being of its people, and safeguard the future of their diverse and precious marine resources,” the report said.
With a deforestation rate of 19% between 2009 and 2019, Kalimantan is an area of importance for mangroves in Indonesia, the report noted. It also found that the provinces of North Kalimantan, Riau, North Maluku, and Central Java have the lowest percentage of mangroves that fall within protected areas.
Offshore renewable energy. The ocean has the potential to provide Indonesia with multiple sources of clean energy through offshore wind farms as well as renewable ocean energy, which includes wave energy, tidal energy, and OTEC.
The report urged Indonesia to include offshore renewable energy into the country’s energy mix by 2050 and to develop a robust offshore energy industry through large pilot projects.
Offshore wind is not yet central to the national energy transformation plan, but it holds the most immediate potential for shifting to clean energy. Indonesia could harness low-capacity offshore wind generation from the offshore regions of 26 provinces. This would be particularly useful in high-demand provinces, such as South Sulawesi, South Sumatra, Lampung, Bali, and East, West, and Central Java, the report said. The coasts of West Java, Maluku, Papua, and South Sulawesi are considered higher wind speed areas (reaching 7 to 8 meters per second) that are suitable for deployment of high-capacity high wind speed turbines.
Maluku, North Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, North Maluku, Papua, West Papua, West Sulawesi, South East Sulawesi, and Central Sulawesi have more than 5,500 megawatts of OTEC capacity with a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE, a measure that takes account of lifetime costs including installation, operation, and maintenance) in the range of $0.15 to $0.17 per kilowatt-hour, with the highest potential in Maluku, North Sulawesi, and East Nusa Tenggara. These areas have emissions reduction potential of around 7.84 MtCO2e in 2030.
Shipping. The report noted that Indonesia has a unique opportunity to lead a transition to a low-emissions future for the shipping industry. It recommended aligning the decarbonization target for domestic shipping and maritime passenger transport with the International Maritime Organization strategy. It urged Indonesia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across domestic maritime passenger transport by transitioning 5% of the fleet to alternative fuel sources by 2030 and committing to the electrification of high-impact routes. It also proposed for the domestic shipping sector to identify routes for the deployment of low net production and low-emissions alternative fuels by at least 20% (striving for 30%) by 2030 and increasing to at least 70% (striving for 80%) by 2040 as compared with 2008 levels, with a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.
Recommendations
The report recommended policies and measures that create an enabling environment for ocean-based mitigation. These include:
- Robust and transparent carbon monitoring and reporting systems;
- A specific marine planning process that encompasses all maritime sectors and users, and includes consideration of the co-benefits and social implications of planning decisions;
- Targeted establishment of marine protected areas that prioritize mangrove and seagrass ecosystems;
- Implementation of energy efficiency and low-carbon fuels for domestic shipping; and
- Investment in feasibility studies (including grid and technical readiness, economic production opportunities, alignment with industrial expansion, and energy equity analysis) to further the deployment of offshore renewable energy.